Report – Visitor Economy Recovery and Marketing Report for a Regional Destination

Executive Summary

This report analyses the visitor economy performance and marketing strategy of the Kalinda Coast (referred to throughout as the destination or the region), a representative regional destination on the New South Wales coast, and sets out a costed program to grow its visitor economy over the three years to FY2026-27. The analysis is framed against the Commonwealth long-term strategy for the sector, THRIVE 2030 (Austrade 2022), and uses the measurement conventions applied by Tourism Research Australia in the National Visitor Survey and the Regional Tourism Satellite Account (TRA 2024a; TRA 2024b). All figures are illustrative but internally consistent and modelled on published regional benchmarks.

In FY2023-24 the destination attracted an estimated 1.99 million visitors, who generated 2.23 million visitor nights and A$558.2 million in direct visitor expenditure, supporting an estimated A$976.8 million in total output once flow-on effects are included. Yield per visitor reached A$280.20, and the region held an estimated 1.76 per cent of the regional New South Wales visitor economy. Nominal expenditure has recovered to 15.8 per cent above the pre-pandemic FY2018-19 baseline; however, once the approximately 19 per cent rise in consumer prices over the period is removed (ABS 2024), real expenditure sits about 2.7 per cent below that baseline. The central finding is that the recovery in volume has outpaced the recovery in real value, and that growth has been led by the lowest-yielding day trip segment. The strategy proposed here therefore prioritises yield and dispersal over raw visitor numbers, through a marketing and product program of A$2.15 million weighted towards higher-yielding overnight, international and business events segments.

Introduction

The visitor economy is a significant contributor to regional employment and income in Australia, and its recovery from the disruptions of the early 2020s has been a priority at both Commonwealth and state level. THRIVE 2030 sets a national ambition to restore and then grow the visitor economy, with particular emphasis on regional dispersal, high-value experiences and resilience (Austrade 2022). Tourism Australia carries the international marketing task on behalf of the sector (Tourism Australia 2023), while Destination NSW coordinates state-level strategy and has set expenditure targets under the NSW Visitor Economy Strategy 2030 (Destination NSW 2023). Regional destinations operate within this architecture and increasingly compete not only for visitors but for the higher-yielding segments that generate disproportionate economic value (Ritchie & Crouch 2003).

The aim of this report is to analyse the destination’s recent visitor economy performance, to quantify that performance using standard visitor economy metrics, and to propose a costed marketing and product strategy to grow the region’s visitor economy sustainably to FY2026-27. The scope covers domestic overnight, domestic day trip and international overnight visitation, together with the marketing and product initiatives within the influence of the regional destination management organisation. Aviation policy, major infrastructure funding and workforce supply are acknowledged as enabling conditions but sit outside the boundary of this report. The Kalinda Coast is a hypothetical destination used to illustrate the analysis, and the figures are modelled and should be read as representative rather than actual.

Market and Performance Analysis

Visitor economy context

Regional visitor economies in Australia are shaped by the balance between high-volume, lower-yield day trip and drive markets and lower-volume, higher-yield overnight and international markets. Tourism Research Australia’s regional data show that overnight visitors, although fewer in number, contribute the majority of expenditure because length of stay and per-night spend are both higher (TRA 2024b). Day trip travel recovered quickest after the pandemic because it depends on nearby driving markets, whereas international recovery has lagged as aviation capacity and inbound demand rebuild (TRA 2024a). For a destination within reach of a large metropolitan catchment, this creates both an opportunity, in the form of a reliable base of drive visitation, and a risk, in the form of over-reliance on the lowest-yielding segment. Coordinating an effective response requires a whole-of-destination planning approach that aligns operators, local government and the state body (Hall 2008). The analysis that follows quantifies that balance for the destination.

Visitor volume, nights and expenditure

Table 1 disaggregates FY2023-24 visitation into three segments and derives visitor nights and expenditure from the underlying volume, length of stay and spend assumptions. The segmentation follows the standard division used in national tourism statistics (TRA 2024a), and the derived totals are used in the worked calculations that follow.

Table 1: Visitor volume, nights and expenditure by segment, Kalinda Coast, FY2023-24

Worked calculations

The derived metrics are calculated from the volume, stay and spend assumptions in Table 1, with the formula, the substitution and the result shown for each.

Visitor nights (domestic overnight) = visitors × average length of stay = 610,000 × 3.2 = 1,952,000 nights. Applying the same method to the international overnight segment (42,000 × 6.5) gives 273,000 nights, for a total of 2,225,000 visitor nights; day trip visitors contribute no nights by definition.

Average spend (domestic overnight, per trip) = segment expenditure / segment visitors = 355,264,000 / 610,000 = A$582.40 per visitor, equivalent to A$182.00 per night across an average 3.2-night stay.

Total visitor expenditure = sum of segment expenditure = 355,264,000 + 158,120,000 + 44,772,000 = A$558,156,000, or approximately A$558.2 million.

Yield per visitor = total expenditure / total visitors = 558,156,000 / 1,992,000 = A$280.20 per visitor. Because day trip travellers depress this average, the overnight-only yield per visitor night, calculated as overnight expenditure of 400,036,000 divided by 2,225,000 nights, is A$179.79 per night.

Economic multiplier effect = direct expenditure × output multiplier. Applying a regional tourism output multiplier of 1.75 (Dwyer, Forsyth & Dwyer 2010), total output = 558,156,000 × 1.75 = A$976,773,000, of which flow-on (indirect and induced) activity is 558,156,000 × 0.75 = A$418,617,000. Multipliers are indicative and depend on regional import leakage, so this figure is treated as an order-of-magnitude estimate rather than a precise forecast.

Market-share change = share (FY2023-24) minus share (FY2018-19), where share is destination expenditure as a proportion of the regional New South Wales visitor economy. FY2023-24 = 558,156,000 / 31,800,000,000 = 1.76 per cent, against FY2018-19 = 482,000,000 / 29,400,000,000 = 1.64 per cent, a gain of +0.12 percentage points. A small share gain against a large and growing state market indicates the destination has grown marginally faster than regional New South Wales as a whole.

Recovery against the pre-pandemic baseline

Table 2 compares FY2023-24 with the pre-pandemic FY2018-19 baseline across the headline indicators, showing both nominal and inflation-adjusted expenditure.

Table 2: Recovery against the pre-pandemic baseline, FY2018-19 compared with FY2023-24

On the headline nominal measure the recovery is complete: visitors are up 6.0 per cent, visitor nights up 6.5 per cent, and direct expenditure up 15.8 per cent. Yield per visitor has risen 9.3 per cent, from A$256.38 to A$280.20, and the destination has lifted its share of the regional New South Wales visitor economy by 0.12 percentage points (Destination NSW 2023). Read in isolation, these figures suggest a destination performing above its pre-pandemic peak.

The nominal picture is, however, flattered by inflation. Consumer prices rose approximately 19 per cent between FY2018-19 and FY2023-24 (ABS 2024). Deflating FY2023-24 expenditure to FY2018-19 dollars gives 558,156,000 / 1.19 = A$469.0 million, which is 2.7 per cent below the pre-pandemic baseline of A$482.0 million. In real terms the destination has therefore recovered only about 97 per cent of its pre-pandemic expenditure, and much of the nominal yield improvement reflects higher prices rather than a richer visitor mix. This distinction matters for strategy: sustainable growth must come from attracting higher-yielding visitors and lengthening stays, not from price inflation or from expanding the lowest-value segment, a conclusion consistent with the value-over-volume emphasis of THRIVE 2030 (Austrade 2022).

Marketing and Product Strategy

Growing yield rather than volume requires the destination marketing organisation to influence visitors across the whole journey, from inspiration through to advocacy, not merely to generate awareness. Figure 1 sets out the visitor journey as a marketing funnel, mapping each stage to the marketing task that supports it.

Segmentation and positioning

Effective destination marketing depends on matching propositions to clearly defined segments rather than promoting the destination as an undifferentiated whole (Morrison 2019). The region’s competitiveness rests on its natural and cultural assets, the elements Ritchie and Crouch (2003) describe as core resources and attractors, supported by the quality of the visitor experience and the effectiveness of destination management. The strategic priority is to shift the visitor mix towards higher-yielding overnight and international segments while retaining the reliable drive market, and to lengthen stays and increase dispersal into shoulder seasons. Contemporary destination marketing is increasingly digital and content-led, with the destination marketing organisation acting as an orchestrator of independent operators rather than a seller in its own right (Buhalis 2000; Pike & Page 2014). Positioning should therefore emphasise distinctive, bookable experiences, particularly nature-based and First Nations product, that command higher spend and differentiate the region from substitutable coastal destinations (Weaver & Lawton 2014).

Proposed initiatives and investment

Table 3 sets out six initiatives, each mapped to a target segment, an indicative budget and a measurable key performance indicator. The portfolio is deliberately weighted towards the higher-yielding segments identified in the performance analysis, while retaining an efficient presence in the core drive market.

Table 3: Proposed marketing and product initiatives, target segment, budget and key performance indicator, FY2024-25

The program totals A$2.15 million. If it lifts total visitor expenditure by 4 per cent, the incremental direct expenditure is 0.04 × 558,156,000 = A$22.3 million, a return of about 10 to 1 on program cost before flow-on effects, and roughly 18 to 1 once the 1.75 output multiplier is applied. On this basis the strategy targets total visitor expenditure of A$620 million by FY2026-27, an increase of 11.1 per cent on FY2023-24, achieved through higher yield and dispersal rather than through further growth in the lowest-value segment.

Recommendations

1. Adopt yield and dispersal, rather than visitor volume, as the primary measures of success, reporting yield per visitor and shoulder-season share each quarter through the proposed destination dashboard.
2. Concentrate marketing investment on the higher-yielding domestic overnight and international segments, while maintaining an efficient always-on presence in the core drive market.
3. Prioritise experience and product development, particularly nature-based and First Nations experiences, to lift average spend and lengthen stays, working with operators to make new product bookable online.
4. Rebuild international distribution in partnership with Tourism Australia and Destination NSW, using trade familiarisations and channel agreements to convert renewed aviation capacity into inbound visitation (Tourism Australia 2023; Destination NSW 2023).
5. Pursue business events as a targeted, high-yield and counter-seasonal segment, bidding for association and corporate events that fill mid-week and off-peak capacity.
6. Institutionalise measurement by maintaining the destination dashboard against Tourism Research Australia benchmarks, so that investment can be reallocated to the initiatives that demonstrably improve yield (TRA 2024b).

Conclusion

The destination’s visitor economy has recovered strongly in nominal terms, with direct expenditure 15.8 per cent above the pre-pandemic baseline and a modest gain in state market share. The more important finding, however, is that real expenditure remains about 2.7 per cent below that baseline and that the recovery has been led by the lowest-yielding day trip segment; volume has returned faster than value. The strategy set out here responds by prioritising yield and dispersal over raw numbers: concentrating marketing on higher-yielding overnight and international visitors, developing distinctive and bookable experiences, rebuilding international distribution, and pursuing counter-seasonal business events, all measured against Tourism Research Australia benchmarks and aligned with the national ambition of THRIVE 2030. A focused A$2.15 million program on these terms offers a credible path to A$620 million in visitor expenditure by FY2026-27, growing the visitor economy in value and not merely in volume.

References

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2024, Consumer Price Index, Australia, cat. no. 6401.0, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.

Austrade 2022, THRIVE 2030: The Re-imagined Visitor Economy, Australian Trade and Investment Commission, Canberra.

Buhalis, D 2000, ‘Marketing the competitive destination of the future’, Tourism Management, vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 97-116.

Destination NSW 2023, NSW Visitor Economy Strategy 2030, Destination NSW, Sydney.

Dwyer, L, Forsyth, P & Dwyer, W 2010, Tourism Economics and Policy, Channel View Publications, Bristol.

Hall, CM 2008, Tourism Planning: Policies, Processes and Relationships, 2nd edn, Pearson Education, Harlow.

Morrison, AM 2019, Marketing and Managing Tourism Destinations, 2nd edn, Routledge, Abingdon.

Pike, S & Page, SJ 2014, ‘Destination Marketing Organizations and destination marketing: a narrative analysis of the literature’, Tourism Management, vol. 41, pp. 202-227.

Ritchie, JRB & Crouch, GI 2003, The Competitive Destination: A Sustainable Tourism Perspective, CABI Publishing, Wallingford.

Tourism Australia 2023, Corporate Plan 2023-24, Tourism Australia, Sydney.

Tourism Research Australia (TRA) 2024a, National Visitor Survey: results for the year ending December 2023, Austrade, Canberra.

Tourism Research Australia (TRA) 2024b, Regional Tourism Satellite Account 2022-23, Austrade, Canberra.

Weaver, D & Lawton, L 2014, Tourism Management, 5th edn, John Wiley & Sons, Milton.